Net migration to UK reaches highest level for the last five years

Gap between those arriving to live in the UK for 12 months and those leaving to live abroad jumped by nearly 100,000

Net migration to Britain has risen to its highest level for five years, fuelled by a sharp fall in the number of people going to live abroad and a resurgence in Polish migrants coming to live in the UK.

The latest quarterly figures show that net migration ? the gap between those arriving to live in the UK for more than 12 months and those leaving to live abroad ? jumped by nearly 100,000 in the year to September 2010, to 243,000.

The unexpected rise is a major blow to the Conservatives' pledge to reduce the number to the "tens of thousands" by the next general election in 2015.

Migration experts predicted ministers were now likely to consider even more drastic measures to get the target back on course. One factor that may help the home secretary, Theresa May, is the decision by Germany and other EU countries to open their borders this month to Polish and other workers, after the seven-year transitional period following those countries' accession came to an end.

The official figuresalso show that the Polish community in Britain now numbers 545,000 and is the largest by foreign nationality in the UK, eclipsing the Indian, Pakistani and Irish communities.

However, measured by country of birth rather than nationality the Indian community remains the largest, with many more Indians taking British citizenship.

The figures also show that almost 20% of low-skilled jobs are now filled by non-UK born foreign workers ? double the number a decade ago. The 666,000 foreign-born people working in the UK economy are mainly from other European countries who have freedom of movement.

The immigration minister, Damian Green, insisted the figures covered a period before the government introduced its cap on skilled workers and squeeze on overseas student numbers. It "demonstrates exactly why it is right that we take control of the immigration system and reduce net migration to sustainable levels ? tens, not hundreds of thousands a year".

But Labour said the surge in net migration called into question the immigration pledge: "Since the business secretary [Vince Cable] publicly disagreed with the prime minister that the target was an agreed policy and the prime minister insisted there was 'no ifs, no buts', the government has gone very quiet on what was a flagship Conservative promise," said the party's immigration spokesman, Gerry Sutcliffe.

"The government are not being straight with people. They need to be clear whether this is government policy or not, and they need to explain what workable policies they have to deliver it."

The detailed figures based on the International Passenger Survey show 310,000 people left Britain to live abroad in the 12 months to September 2010, 50,000 down on the previous year. The 310,000 figure is also 27% down on the peak in emigration from Britain in the 12 months to December 2008 when 409,000 left to live abroad, mainly in Australia and Spain.

But Office for National Statistics figures also show a near 50,000 rise in immigration to Britain over the 12 months to last September from 507,000 to 553,000. ONS statisticians said this was mainly due to an increase to 43,000 in net migration from Poland and other "A8" eastern European countries who joined the European Union seven years ago. The previous year had seen 12,000 more Poles and others going home than coming to work in the UK.

"This is due to both a rise in immigration from 45,000 to 72,000 and a fall in emigration from 57,000 to 29,000."

The statisticians added that immigration for work was little changed over the past year but immigration for formal study purposes had risen by 30%.

Matt Cavanagh, associate director of the Institute for Public Policy Research, said the figures showed it was time for the government to admit that the target "makes little sense, and can't be achieved without damaging Britain's economy".

"When they set the target in opposition, the Conservatives clearly hadn't planned for emigration continuing to fall," he said. "Today's figures show that emigration of British nationals is down by more than 25% since 2008. This means the government will have to take even more drastic measures to try to meet their chosen target."

He added that the government also has no control over immigration from the EU and would also find it difficult to reduce the numbers using the family route into the UK.

"So they will have to tighten up even further on students or skilled workers coming from outside the EU ? the most valuable kinds of immigration for our economy," he said.

Martin Ruhs, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said there were some problems with focusing policy debates so closely on long-term net migration data: "Reducing net migration would not necessarily lead to a drop in the country's total migrant population," he said.

"It is perfectly possible that a decline in long-term migration could be accompanied by an increase in short-term migration, which may lead to flat, or even faster, growth in the migrant population.

"Net migration plays an important part in understanding the broader picture of how migration changes the UK, but it is only one element, and we need to consider a more complete picture to allow the best policies to be developed."

The National Union of Students warned that the government's "anti-immigration rhetoric" risks giving the impression that British universities do not welcome the contribution of overseas students.

Aaron Porter, NUS president, said students should not be included in migration figures after the Office for National Statistics published data showing that the number of migrants coming to study had risen by 30% in the past year.

Porter said: "The idea that students ? who are a transient population which leave the country after three years ? are included in migration figures is wholly illogical. The contribution of international students to the UK economy runs into the billions and helps to subsidise home students."

Alan Travis

guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2011 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds