Only 17 per cent of voters think he was the right choice to replace Gordon Brown, with twice as many thinking he was the wrong man. But his real problem ? and main opportunity ? is the 50 per cent of the public who currently have no opinion of him. Only 59 per cent of the public recognise pictures of the Labour leader ? that?s less than Alfred Hitchcock, and he?s been dead for 30 years.
So is David Cameron the Christmas Number One?
On balance, yes. Below the headline numbers, the Conservatives are ahead on all three components of what has been called the ?iron triangle? of long-term political success: they have the most popular leader, are perceived as the most united party, and are increasingly judged to be the most trustworthy on the economy. And if Ed Miliband?s squabbles with Alan Johnson, his Shadow Chancellor, continue in 2011, it will hurt Labour badly: that kind of thing feeds a reputation for disunity and economic incompetence.
Do the Tories have anything to worry about?
The big concern is that public opinion will turn against the Government when the cuts bite. Sorry to be a bit of a Scrooge, but we are about to enter a dark tunnel of higher taxes, higher inflation, higher mortgage rates and cutbacks to public services ? a quadruple whammy that will probably knock the Tories down to 30 per cent in the polls. The big question is whether this tunnel will last for two, three or four years. David Cameron?s hope is that the Coalition will hold together during the midterm blues, and that the economy will recover by election time. A lot of that depends upon the euro: if the eurozone fails next year, our economy and government will face very black times too.
How bad is it for the Liberal Democrats?
Polling in Sheffield suggests that Nick Clegg could easily lose his seat at a general election. According to Ipsos MORI, 63 per cent of voters think the Tories are making most of the decisions in government, and only 26 per cent agree that the Government is a genuine coalition with joint decision making. It gets worse: polling by Lord Ashcroft found that voters don?t think the Lib Dems have made a positive contribution in any policy area. That?s unfair, but it points to the mountain Mr Clegg has to climb.
Could the Lib Dems recover if Nick Clegg was replaced?
It?s too early to say: events may rescue Mr Clegg, but he does look like a massive liability. Immediately after the election debates, he was more popular than Winston Churchill, with two thirds of voters thinking he was trustworthy. Now, only a quarter do. Closer to the election, the Lib Dems may need a new leader, someone who honoured the tuition fees promise and whom Left-wing voters might be willing to support.
What else can we look forward to in 2011?
A minority Labour government in Scotland and likely defeat for the AV referendum. Older voters are not only much more likely to turn out to vote, but much less likely to support a change to the voting system. If they can be mobilised, and the ?No to AV? campaign can link electoral reform to permanent coalitions and the broken promises that go with them; we?ll keep first-past-the-post.
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