Strategic decisions under scrutiny as defence costs mounts

Growing calls to overturn last year's review as officials engage in frantic talks to slash �1bn off armed forces budget

Britain's ability to mount effective military operations in Libya and elsewhere is being seriously questioned amid growing calls to overturn last year's defence review.

Strategic decisions taken at the highest level are coming under increasing scrutiny as defence officials are engaged in frantic talks with arms companies in an attempt to slash an immediate �1bn off this year's armed forces budget.

The Guardian understands that defence officials are renegotiating the terms under which major contracts were signed, which may lead to payments being deferred, or arms companies accepting lower fees.

With the prospect of months of costly operations over Libya and no aircraft carrier to back them up, a growing number of independent military analysts ? reflecting opinion within the Ministry of Defence ? are calling for a radical rethink.

The frigate HMS Cumberland, the Nimrod R1 spy plane and the RAF's Sentinel reconnaissance aircraft ? all used over Libya ? are due for the chop, as are Tornado ground attack aircraft due to be replaced by Eurofighter/Typhoons, which are not yet fully ready to take on the role.

Analysts and politicians are also questioning the wisdom of scrapping the carrier, Ark Royal, and say it is not too late to bring back its fleet of Harrier jump jets.

The senior Harrier commander in the Falklands conflict, Nigel MacCartan-Ward, estimates that RAF operations over the Libya operation will cost �900m over six months, significantly more, he claims, than if an aircraft carrier and Harriers were available. The first eight days of operations cost the RAF more than �41m, and the navy (which fired seven Tomahawk cruise missiles) �4.5m, he estimates.

The defence review could become the "fastest policy failure in modern British history", security experts Paul Cornish and Andrew Dorman warn in the latest issue of International Affairs, the publication of the Chatham House thinktank.

In an article for the publication Parliamentary Brief, Dorman, lecturer at the joint services command and staff college, refers to "embarrassing" cuts and "chaotic attempts at leasing civilian aircraft and the eventual use of Hercules aircraft ? to pick up personnel from bases in the Libyan desert".

He adds: "The government seems to have forgotten its own working assumptions [conflict avoidance] with David Cameron leading calls for a no-fly zone and subsequently committing British forces to support the no-fly zone and engage in attacks on Libyan ground forces."

Professor Michael Clarke, director of the Royal United Services Institute, said yesterday: "We got into the Libyan operation alongside France and the US, with no expectation that the US would withdraw its combat aircraft from the fray after less than three weeks. Now that it has done so we are trying to step up our own operations in a way that really strains the force ? one more thing and the system will break."

Rear Admiral Chris Parry, former director of development and doctrine at the MoD, warned: "Now that we've imposed the no-fly zone [over Libya] we have to rethink what our objectives should be in light of circumstances on the ground."

He was referring to reports that Gaddafi's forces are dispersing and hiding tanks and using human shields in urban areas. The British government has suggested that private security companies, some using former SAS soldiers, could be employed to train the Libyan opposition.

"It looks as though we are trying to have war on the cheap both financially and politically," a senior military figure said.

"The government's rushed defence review hasn't survived the first contact with world events," said Jim Murphy, the shadow defence secretary. "The government have made mistakes and some of them may be serious. While France has an aircraft carrier off the coast of Libya, Britain has one [Ark Royal] for sale online."

He has written to Liam Fox, the defence secretary, asking him to reopen last year's defence review.

"There is growing disquiet that the review has not survived its first contact with world events," he said. "It is clear," he added, "that the majority of the defence community believe that events in North Africa and the Middle East have fundamentally changed the security landscape."

Fox has argued that it is pointless reopening the SDSR because the money given to the MoD was set out by the comprehensive spending review ? and there is no way that the Treasury will review the CSR.

Ministers say part of the current problem was caused by Labour adding �600m to defence coffers for the sale of Typhoon jets to Oman before the money had been received. The contract was never signed.

Billions of pounds have been lost over the years by disastrous procurements ? meaning that there is little sympathy in Whitehall for the MoD's current problems.

Richard Norton-Taylor

Nick Hopkins

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