Andrew Sparrow is in Cardiff as the party leadership gathers for its Welsh conference and spring forum
In her speech Lady Warsi made a point of saying that David Cameron is a Conservative prime minister "delivering Conservative priorities based on Conservative promises". But, according to Lord Mandelson, Cameron is more-or-less a Blairite. Mandelson has written a fascinating essay on the contemporary political scene for the new paperback edition of his autobiography, The Third Man. I finished reading it on the train to Cardiff. His comments about Ed Miliband have already been reported, but his analysis of Cameron is also intriguing. Here's what he says:
I suspect that [David Cameron] is temperamentally more at ease in leading a coalition than he would be leading a government of his own party. Not just in campaigning and presentation, but in a number of policy areas, the signs have been more of a continuity with New Labour than an old-style Tory unravelling of what proceeding Labour administrations had put in place ...
Still - and I make no apology for saying this - some of the early policy initiatives are consistent with the reforms that New Labour started, including reforms, in areas like the extension of academy schools, or welfare and benefit changes, which we did not manage to get fully done. They may also turn out, if implemented intelligently, to be the kind of decisions that will resonate with the political middle ground that most of Britain inhabits
There's plenty more stuff in the chapter worth reporting. It's a bit "off-topic", but if I get a chance I'll post the highlights this afternoon.
Here's a lunchtime summary.
? Labour have suggested that George Osborne's plan to revive enterprise zones is a gimmick. The Treasury has already trailed the plan, which Osborne will formally announce in a speech to the Conservative spring conference this afternoon. But John Denham, the shadow business secretary, accused Osborne of just chasing positive headlines. He put out this statement.
George Osborne will have to show how his new enterprise zones will be more effective than those in the 1980s. Independent analysis of enterprise zones at home and abroad show they have limited impact and the cost of job creation is far higher than alternatives like the future jobs fund. The Tory-led government has wrecked regional development agencies and ignored Labour pleas to give [local enterprise partnerships] real powers over skills and resources. Britain needs a plan for growth, not a plan for headlines.
? Lady Warsi, the Conservative co-chairman, has said that winning the referendum on the alternative vote is more important than doing well in the local elections. For the Tories, "winning" means securing a no vote. In part this reflects a recognition that the party will do badly in the Scottish, Welsh and English local elections on 5 May. Warsi said as much in an interview published this morning. But it is also a response to fears that "losing" the AV referendum could damage the Tories' long-term prospects of forming a majority government. Warsi urged activists to "fight every single Liberal Democrat backing the other side" on this issue. (See 12.40pm.)
Here are the main points from Lady Warsi's speech. The full text is now on the Conservative party website.
? Warsi said that the referendum on the alternative vote was more important than the Scottish, Welsh and local elections on 5 May.
On May 5th, I want you to defend the seats we hold. Of course, we've got to take the seats we can. But above all on May 5th, we need to win the one election which will affect every single general election to come.
This is interesting because it reflects the concerns of some commentators, like Paul Goodman at ConservativeHome, that the Tories have so far been underplaying the importance of the AV referendum. It also marks a contrast with the stance taken by senior Labour figures, who have generally been arguing that the local elections are more important than the AV poll.
? She urged her audience to fight the Lib Dems. This should not be a surprise, of course, but it made my ears prick up, because you don't often hear Tory ministers now talking with relish about attacking the Lib Dems. Warsi did this in the context of AV, in a passage that is not in the printed version of her speech released to the media.
Go out and fight every single Liberal Democrat backing the other side because the Conservatives are voting no.
? She warned that the party could do badly in the local elections.
Let's remember where we're starting from. We hold almost half of all English seats, gaining many when Labour were rock bottom in the polls. So we have a high base to defend.
She was even more explicit about this in an interview in today's Daily Telegraph. "We will do badly in the local elections and Labour should do very well because of where we are in the electoral cycle," she said. I've already heard one Tory commentator here complaining about this, on the grounds that a party co-chairman should not be conceding defeat before the local election campaign has already started.
? She insisted that the government was "led by a Conservative prime minister" and "delivering Conservative priorities based on Conservative promises". This seemed aimed at those Conservative party members - 58% of the membership, according to this ConservativeHome poll - who think that Cameron is making too many concessions to the Lib Dems.
Lady Warsi, the Conservative party co-chairman, has just finished speaking. It wasn't one of the great speeches of the year, but it was more interesting than many of the speeches you'll hear at sleepy conferences like this at 12.30pm on a sunny Saturday. I'll post a summary in a moment.
In the comments hilltop predicted that I wouldn't be fighting for a seat in the press room. He was right. There are about nine of us here at the moment.
But the conference hall itself looks reasonably full. Admittedly, it's not the Albert Hall. It's a smallish auditorium. There are probably about 200 people in it now listening to the end of the Welsh debate.
Nick Bourne, the leader of the Conservatives in the Welsh Assembly, spoke earlier. He set out what amounts to a mini-manifesto for the assembly elections. He proposed:
? Enterprise zones across Wales.
? A voluntary charter mark to recognise businesses that promote the Welsh language.
? Free bus travel and other benefits for members of the armed forces in Wales.
? Reversing Labour's health cuts in Wales.
? An extra �3m a year for the Welsh air ambulance service.
This is appropriate. The conference is taking place at the SWALEC stadium, the home of Glamorgan cricket club. Conservatism, like cricket, is an essentially English passion that has never been fully embraced by the Welsh.
I've arrived and I'm just getting my bearings. I'll post again soon.
10:31am: I'm writing this on the train to Wales. It's the weekend of the Conservative spring conference (or spring forum, as they call it ? anyone know why?) and over the next 48 hours we'll hear from at least 10 cabinet ministers, as well as David Cameron, who will be giving the closing speech tomorrow afternoon.
Spring conferences can be low-key affairs, but with the economy wobbling, severe spending cuts coming into effect, the Libyan crisis deepening, Ukip beating the Tories in the Barnsely Central byelection and the budget looming, it will be odd if this event doesn't generate some solid political news.
Today's main story seems to be about the budget. George Osborne is speaking this afternoon and the Treasury has already revealed that he will announce plans to create the "enterprise zone" championed by the Tories in the 1980s. The budget will be "unashamedly pro-growth", he will say, and it will include plans to set up enterprise zones in 10 areas of the country.
My train arrives in Cardiff mid-morning and so I'm going to miss the first hour or so of the conference, which is about what the party has been doing in Wales. (The Welsh Conservatives normally have their own spring conference; this year their event has merged with the national spring forum.) But here are the main events I'll be covering.
? 12pm: Lady Warsi, the Conservative co-chairman, gives a speech.
? 2pm: George Osborne, the chancellor, opens a session on economic growth with a speech. There will then be a panel session on regional growth, with MPs and AMs (members of the Welsh Assembly) speaking.
? Around 3pm: Eric Pickles, the communities secretary, gives a speech.
? Around 3.30pm: Oliver Letwin, the Cabinet Office minister and chairman of the Conservative Policy Forum, gives a presentation. There will then be a discussion on developing economic policies for the future.
? Around 4.30pm: Cheryl Gillan, the Welsh secretary, closes the session.
I'll post again after 11am, once I've arrived.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2011/mar/05/conservative-party-cardiff-conference-live
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